Celtic 2-2 Milan: Camarda Killed Our 2-1 Call

Eight from nine markets landed. The one that didn't? The exact score. And in this game, that one hurt enough to write about.

What We Got Right

Celtic Park was exactly what we said it would be. Wilfried Nancy's side came out pressing, Cucho Duran opened the scoring in the 11th minute, and James Forrest added a second on 27 with Duran picking up the assist. Two goals before half-time, Celtic in control, the home crowd loud. Everything we called.

Sheila

Celtic have scored in every single game in that six-match run. Rotation or not, they score.

That read was clean. So was our half-time call, our goal-in-each-half call, and the over. The multigoal 1 to 4 window landed right on the number. All eight directional markets held up.

Where It Went Wrong

The 2-1 call died in four minutes either side of the hour mark, and it died because of Francesco Camarda.

Two minutes into the second half, a penalty. Camarda stepped up and converted. Then on 53 minutes, Samuel Chukwueze threaded an assist and Camarda was there again. Two goals in six minutes from a player we had not factored in with any real weight. We built our scoreline around Leao and Ramos as the likely sources of Milan's threat.

Tom

Celtic have been scoring freely, 15 goals in 6 games, and Milan have been leaking. My anchor is 2-1 to Celtic.

The anchor held for 46 minutes. Then Camarda arrived.

Kieran Tierney picked up a yellow on 51 minutes in the middle of that chaotic spell, which tells you everything about the momentum shift. Celtic had coasted through the first half. The second half became a completely different match.

Would we have landed the exact score without those two Camarda goals in that window? Yes, comfortably. Celtic were the better side for most of the game. But football does not grade on what would have happened. A teenage striker found two goals in six second-half minutes, and a 2-1 Celtic win became a 2-2 draw.

What It Tells Us Going Forward

We are not going to dress this up. The exact score miss is a miss. Camarda was not on our radar as the match-defining player, and that is on us for anchoring too hard on the names we already knew.

What the data still tells us is that Celtic's attacking output under Nancy is genuine. Two goals at home against a Milan side with real quality in it is not a fluke. That 2.5 goals per game average is holding, even in pre-season rotation. And Milan, even without Gimenez and Pulisic, have enough threat in depth to punish you if you give them a penalty and an open transition in the same five-minute spell.

Amorim's side showed something here. Whether that carries into competitive football is the bigger question as the season approaches.